Draw Duel
William Nylander faceoff stats, 2025-26
TOR · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
47.2%
90%: 43.2%–51.3% vs an average regular, on 383 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
38.3%
31 won of 81 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
39.6% / 34.8%
53 strong-side, 23 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NSH: 1 draws at 49.0%, range 0–2
Where Nylander wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 17 | 5 | 29.4% |
| OZ right | 46 | 18 | 39.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| DZ left | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| DZ right | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L39.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L57.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 25.0% 4 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 38.3% 81 | 41.1% 73 | 12.5% 8 | — 0 | 35.5% 62 | 50.0% 10 | 44.4% 9 | 39.6% 53 | 34.8% 23 |
| 2024-25 | 49.7% 153 | 48.9% 133 | 55.0% 20 | — 0 | 47.8% 92 | 45.2% 31 | 60.0% 30 | 53.7% 108 | 34.4% 32 |
| 2023-24 | 47.1% 119 | 46.0% 100 | — 0 | 52.6% 19 | 50.6% 83 | 31.3% 16 | 45.0% 20 | 48.4% 91 | 40.0% 25 |
| Playoffs (all) | 73.1% 26 | 73.9% 23 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | 75.0% 20 | 60.0% 5 | 100.0% 1 | 64.3% 14 | 88.9% 9 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux | 5–7 | 41.7% | 36.8% | 37.0% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Nico Hischier | 3–6 | 33.3% | 39.8% | 39.6% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Shane Pinto | 5–4 | 55.6% | 49.7% | 49.8% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 4–5 | 44.4% | 46.7% | 46.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Nic Dowd | 4–3 | 57.1% | 44.0% | 44.2% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 2–4 | 33.3% | 46.1% | 46.0% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Jake Evans | 1–5 | 16.7% | 43.0% | 42.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Brayden Schenn | 3–3 | 50.0% | 45.7% | 45.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 2–3 | 40.0% | 49.8% | 49.7% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Logan Cooley | 3–2 | 60.0% | 56.4% | 56.4% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Brady Tkachuk | 4–1 | 80.0% | 46.2% | 46.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 3–2 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 42.9% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs OTT | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ OTT | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs FLA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYI | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ STL | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ BOS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ OTT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (45%), Jack Drury (41%)0.7 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (51%), William Karlsson (43%)0.6 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (47%), Nathan MacKinnon (50%)0.7 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is William Nylander's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows William Nylander's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will William Nylander win tonight?
When William Nylander has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is William Nylander better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.