Who to start · 2025-26
Adam Lowry vs Connor McDavid
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Lowry's 1.12.
Lowry had 21 points in 70 games; McDavid had 138 in 82 games.
This week Lowry has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; McDavid has 2 left with 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Lowry's 2.2 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Lowry's biggest edges: Hits 150, Blocked shots 48, Faceoff win % 54.9%.
McDavid's biggest edges: Power-play share 88.5%, Offensive-zone time 47.7%, Power-play time per game 3:35.
Head to head on the dot, McDavid leads Lowry 76–62.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -1.5 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Lowry is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 1.15 (was 2.04); McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before).
- • Lowry, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • McDavid, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
Winnipeg Jets · Edmonton Oilers · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adam Lowry
-1.5
category z-score total
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (Lowry wins 1, McDavid wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Lowry | McDavid |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| Assists / game | 0.27 | 1.52 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.03 | 0.84 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.97 | 3.25 |
| Hits / game | 2.09 | 0.85 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Lowry vs McDavid
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Lowry 9G 8A, 61 SOG · McDavid 11G 41A, 107 SOG
Lowry's offensive zone 7–19 · neutral 32–24 · Lowry's defensive zone 23–33 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Lowry blocked 2 of McDavid's shots; McDavid blocked 2 of Lowry's.
On the ice against each other (Lowry's side)
20:00 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Lowry's side
- Shot attempts
- 18–22
- 45.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–1.4
- 33.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Lowry | McDavid |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | WPG 3–4 EDM | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2025-12-29 | WPG 1–3 EDM | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-06 | WPG 2–6 EDM | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2025-03-20 | WPG 4–3 EDM | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-10-09 | WPG 6–0 EDM | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-26 | WPG 3–4 EDM | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-11-30 | WPG 1–3 EDM | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-10-21 | WPG 3–2 EDM | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-03-04 | WPG 7–5 EDM | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-03-03 | WPG 3–6 EDM | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 3A 6S |
| 2022-12-31 | WPG 2–1 EDM | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-02-19 | WPG 2–4 EDM | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 6S |
Latest 12 of 33 meetings.
Faceoffs: Lowry vs McDavid
Model: Adam Lowry wins 54.1% of draws against Connor McDavid on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Lowry at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 63% | 44% | 64% | 45% | 55% | 64% | 45% | 65% | 46% |
| Road | 62% | 43% | 63% | 44% | 54% | 63% | 44% | 64% | 45% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Lowry 18–28 (39.1%). Blended with the model: 52.9%. The record is unusual for this matchup (z -2.0); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Adam Lowry
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ STLOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.910)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ DAL1.0 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to Cvs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sun, Oct 25 vs MTL1.2 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to Cvs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adam Lowry or Connor McDavid in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Lowry's 1.12. Lowry had 21 points in 70 games; McDavid had 138 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Adam Lowry or Connor McDavid?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Lowry and McDavid done against each other?
- In 33 games against each other in our data, Lowry's team went 19–14. Lowry had 17 points (9 goals) and McDavid had 52 (11 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Lowry or McDavid?
- Against each other, Lowry has won 62 and McDavid 76 of their 138 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →