Who to start · 2025-26
Adam Lowry vs Macklin Celebrini
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Lowry's 1.12.
Lowry had 21 points in 70 games; Celebrini had 115 in 82 games.
This week Lowry has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Celebrini has 2 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Celebrini for 5.3 to Lowry's 2.2 over the games left.
Macklin Celebrini has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Lowry's biggest edges: Hits 150, Faceoff win % 54.9%, Draw Equity /100 +0.043.
Celebrini's biggest edges: Goals above expected +5.9, Luck Meter +76, Offensive-zone start % 68.6%.
Head to head on the dot, Lowry leads Celebrini 14–4.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Macklin Celebrini rates ahead, +13.2 to -1.5 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Lowry is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 1.15 (was 2.04); Celebrini is surging, ixG/60 1.90 (was 1.10).
- • Lowry, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • Celebrini has played 8 of the Sharks' 10 games since Oct 1 (in and out of the lineup).
- • Celebrini, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 5 G, 9 A, 8 PPP, 37 SOG.
Winnipeg Jets · San Jose Sharks · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adam Lowry
-1.5
category z-score total
Macklin Celebrini
+13.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Macklin Celebrini has the edge (Lowry wins 1, Celebrini wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Lowry | Celebrini |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.09 | 0.58 |
| Assists / game | 0.27 | 0.95 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.97 | 3.89 |
| Hits / game | 2.09 | 0.64 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Lowry vs Celebrini
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Lowry 1G 0A, 8 SOG · Celebrini 3G 6A, 18 SOG
Lowry's offensive zone 2–0 · neutral 9–0 · Lowry's defensive zone 3–4 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
Lowry blocked 1 of Celebrini's shots; Celebrini blocked 0 of Lowry's.
On the ice against each other (Lowry's side)
12:25 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Lowry's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–9
- 35.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.3
- 43.6%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Lowry | Celebrini |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | WPG 1–6 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 3S |
| 2026-03-01 | WPG 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-11-07 | WPG 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 6S |
| 2025-02-24 | WPG 2–1 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-12-17 | WPG 4–3 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 6S |
Faceoffs: Lowry vs Celebrini
Model: Adam Lowry wins 54.5% of draws against Macklin Celebrini on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Lowry at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 61% | 47% | 62% | 48% | 55% | 62% | 48% | 64% | 49% |
| Road | 60% | 45% | 61% | 46% | 54% | 61% | 46% | 62% | 48% |
Head-to-head 2024-25 to 2025-26: Lowry 14–4 (77.8%). Blended with the model: 55.3%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z 2.0); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Adam Lowry
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ STLOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.910)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ DAL1.0 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to Cvs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sun, Oct 25 vs MTL1.2 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Macklin Celebrini
4games (2 left)
5.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ TOROpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ MTLB2B
- Thu, Oct 22 @ OTT2.8 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ BOS2.5 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adam Lowry or Macklin Celebrini in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Lowry's 1.12. Lowry had 21 points in 70 games; Celebrini had 115 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Adam Lowry or Macklin Celebrini?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Macklin Celebrini leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Lowry and Celebrini done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Lowry's team went 2–3. Lowry had 1 points (1 goals) and Celebrini had 9 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Lowry or Celebrini?
- Against each other, Lowry has won 14 and Celebrini 4 of their 18 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →