Who to start · 2025-26
Adam Lowry vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Lowry's 1.12.
Lowry had 21 points in 70 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Lowry has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Lowry's 2.2 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Lowry's biggest edges: Hits 150, Shorthanded points 2, Faceoff win % 54.9%.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Luck Meter +52, Offensive-zone start % 71.8%.
Head to head on the dot, Lowry leads MacKinnon 126–95.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -1.5 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Lowry is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 1.15 (was 2.04); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • Lowry, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • MacKinnon, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Winnipeg Jets · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adam Lowry
-1.5
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Lowry wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Lowry | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.09 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.27 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.03 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.97 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 2.09 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Lowry vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Lowry 7G 3A, 48 SOG · MacKinnon 17G 28A, 158 SOG
Lowry's offensive zone 18–18 · neutral 70–31 · Lowry's defensive zone 38–46 (2017-18 to 2026-27)
Lowry blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 1 of Lowry's.
On the ice against each other (Lowry's side)
45:03 at 5-on-5 over 5 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Lowry's side
- Shot attempts
- 29–45
- 39.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–1.6
- 30.0%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Lowry | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | WPG 3–2 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-28 | WPG 4–2 COL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-03-26 | WPG 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 7S |
| 2026-03-14 | WPG 3–1 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-12-19 | WPG 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-01-11 | WPG 3–0 COL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-12-31 | WPG 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2024-11-07 | WPG 1–0 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-04-30 · PO | WPG 3–6 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 7S |
| 2024-04-28 · PO | WPG 1–5 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2024-04-26 · PO | WPG 2–6 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 8S |
| 2024-04-23 · PO | WPG 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 33 meetings.
Faceoffs: Lowry vs MacKinnon
Model: Adam Lowry wins 53.5% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Lowry at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 54% | 52% | 55% | 54% | 54% | 55% | 54% | 56% | 55% |
| Road | 52% | 51% | 54% | 52% | 53% | 54% | 52% | 55% | 53% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2026-27: Lowry 72–55 (56.7%). Blended with the model: 54.2%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.7); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Adam Lowry
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ STLOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.910)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ DAL1.0 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to Cvs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sun, Oct 25 vs MTL1.2 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adam Lowry or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Adam Lowry's 1.12. Lowry had 21 points in 70 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Adam Lowry or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Lowry and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 33 games against each other in our data, Lowry's team went 15–18. Lowry had 10 points (7 goals) and MacKinnon had 45 (17 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Lowry or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Lowry has won 126 and MacKinnon 95 of their 221 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →