Who to start · 2026-27
Casey Mittelstadt vs Connor McDavid
In 2026-27, Connor McDavid scored 4.06 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Casey Mittelstadt's 1.32.
Mittelstadt had 12 points in 20 games; McDavid had 50 in 21 games.
This week Mittelstadt has no games left; McDavid has 1 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 3.7 to Mittelstadt's 0.0 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 30 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Mittelstadt's biggest edges: Ascension score 79, Forecheck xG /60 0.53, Penalty minutes 6.
McDavid's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 48.1%, Ice time per game 23:41, Ice-time share 38.8%.
Head to head on the dot, McDavid leads Mittelstadt 10–3.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +16.2 to -0.4 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Mittelstadt is rising, +0:45 PP TOI; McDavid is cooling, 10 P in last 5 (2.50/GP before).
- • Mittelstadt, last 10 games (Oct 22–Nov 14): 5 G, 3 A, 1 PPP, 16 SOG.
- • McDavid, last 10 games (Oct 26–Nov 14): 3 G, 14 A, 8 PPP, 30 SOG.
Boston Bruins · Edmonton Oilers · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (Mittelstadt wins 0, McDavid wins 6 of 6 categories).
| Category | Mittelstadt | McDavid |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| Assists / game | 0.25 | 1.86 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.55 | 1.24 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.45 | 2.76 |
| Hits / game | 0.30 | 0.90 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Mittelstadt vs McDavid
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Mittelstadt 3G 3A, 21 SOG · McDavid 8G 9A, 52 SOG
Mittelstadt's offensive zone 2–2 · neutral 0–2 · Mittelstadt's defensive zone 1–6 (2018-19 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Mittelstadt's side)
15:26 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Mittelstadt's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–13
- 48.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.7
- 44.4%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Mittelstadt | McDavid |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | BOS 6–2 EDM | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 9S |
| 2025-12-18 | BOS 1–3 EDM | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2025-02-07 | COL 5–4 EDM | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-01-16 | COL 3–4 EDM | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-30 | COL 1–4 EDM | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-04-05 | COL 2–6 EDM | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 9S |
| 2024-03-16 | COL 3–2 EDM | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-03-06 | BUF 2–3 EDM | 0G 1A 4S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2022-10-18 | BUF 4–2 EDM | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-03-17 | BUF 1–6 EDM | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2019-03-04 | BUF 3–4 EDM | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2019-01-14 | BUF 2–7 EDM | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 3S |
Faceoffs: Mittelstadt vs McDavid
Model: Casey Mittelstadt wins 46.7% of draws against Connor McDavid on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Mittelstadt at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 55% | 38% | 56% | 39% | 47% | 56% | 39% | 57% | 40% |
| Road | 53% | 36% | 55% | 37% | 46% | 55% | 37% | 56% | 38% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Mittelstadt 3–7 (30.0%). Blended with the model: 46.4%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.1); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Mittelstadt faceoffs · McDavid faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Nov 9 to Nov 15. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Casey Mittelstadt
2games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Nov 12 vs MTLOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Jacob Fowler (.926)
- Sat, Nov 14 vs MINOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.926)
Connor McDavid
4games (1 left)
3.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Nov 9 vs NYROpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Dylan Garand (.910)
- Wed, Nov 11 vs PHIOpp allows 16th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Dan Vladar (.879)
- Sat, Nov 14 @ TOROpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Anthony Stolarz (.905)
- Opp allows 16th-fewest FP to Cvs Dan Vladar (.879)
Player data stories
How the game changed, told through the numbers.
- In 2022-23, Four NHL Players Wore a Number in the 90s for Every One in No. 9 The count was 53 to 13, and the incomplete 2025-26 rosters show the same split, 51 to 12.
- The 1,000-Game Club Had Its Biggest Year. Getting In Is No Easier. Seventeen players reached 1,000 NHL games in 2025-26, more than in any season before, in the biggest league the NHL has had.
- Only 14 NHL Defencemen Still Score Like Ken Daneyko A stay-at-home defenceman stays back to defend and leaves the scoring to others.
- How Much Lighter Did the NHL Really Get? Teams write down NHL weights.
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Casey Mittelstadt or Connor McDavid in fantasy hockey?
- In 2026-27, Connor McDavid scored 4.06 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Casey Mittelstadt's 1.32. Mittelstadt had 12 points in 20 games; McDavid had 50 in 21 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Casey Mittelstadt or Connor McDavid?
- On 2026-27 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 30 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Mittelstadt and McDavid done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Mittelstadt's team went 4–8. Mittelstadt had 6 points (3 goals) and McDavid had 17 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Mittelstadt or McDavid?
- Against each other, Mittelstadt has won 3 and McDavid 10 of their 13 head-to-head draws.
2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →