Who to start · 2025-26
Claude Giroux vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Claude Giroux's 1.23.
Giroux had 49 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Giroux has 3 games left with 2 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Giroux's 3.1 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Giroux's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.041, Faceoff win % 63.1%, Draw Equity /100 +0.182.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Top skating speed 24.8, Luck Meter +52.
Head to head on the dot, Giroux leads MacKinnon 24–19.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to +2.0 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Giroux is steady, +1:09 PP TOI; MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 1 G, 5 A, 1 PPP, 13 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Ottawa Senators · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Claude Giroux
+2.0
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Giroux wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Giroux | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.15 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.48 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.59 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 1.08 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Giroux vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Giroux 8G 5A, 44 SOG · MacKinnon 8G 18A, 66 SOG
Giroux's offensive zone 7–4 · neutral 11–8 · Giroux's defensive zone 6–7 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Giroux blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Giroux's.
On the ice against each other (Giroux's side)
8:25 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Giroux's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–10
- 41.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.4
- 48.2%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Giroux | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | OTT 5–2 COL | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-08 | OTT 2–8 COL | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 3A 5S |
| 2025-03-20 | OTT 1–5 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-10-27 | OTT 4–5 COL | 2G 0A 7S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2024-01-16 | OTT 4–7 COL | 0G 3A 4S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-12-21 | OTT 4–6 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 4G 1A 9S |
| 2023-03-16 | OTT 4–5 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 3A 6S |
| 2023-01-14 | OTT 0–7 COL | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2021-12-06 | PHI 5–7 COL | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 8S |
| 2020-02-01 | PHI 6–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-12-11 | PHI 1–3 COL | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2018-10-22 | PHI 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Faceoffs: Giroux vs MacKinnon
Model: Claude Giroux wins 59.5% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (R shot vs R shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Giroux at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50% | 68% | 51% | 69% | 60% | 51% | 69% | 52% | 70% |
| Road | 49% | 67% | 50% | 68% | 60% | 50% | 68% | 51% | 69% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Giroux 11–13 (45.8%). Blended with the model: 58.8%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.4); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Claude Giroux
3games
3.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA1.0 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR1.0 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Claude Giroux or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Claude Giroux's 1.23. Giroux had 49 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Claude Giroux or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Giroux and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Giroux's team went 3–12. Giroux had 13 points (8 goals) and MacKinnon had 26 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Giroux or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Giroux has won 24 and MacKinnon 19 of their 43 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →