Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Nic Dowd
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games.
This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Dowd has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Dowd's 1.8 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 30 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 +1.05, Power-play share 88.5%, Transition attempts /60 2.12.
Dowd's biggest edges: Hits 140, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.007, Blocked shots 50.
Head to head on the dot, Dowd leads McDavid 34–12.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -3.9 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Dowd is steady, ixG/60 0.05 (was 0.46).
- • McDavid, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
- • Dowd, 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • Dowd, last 10 games (Oct 2–Oct 20): 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Edmonton Oilers · Vegas Golden Knights · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Nic Dowd
-3.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 5, Dowd wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | McDavid | Dowd |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.62 | 0.04 |
| Assists / game | 1.52 | 0.20 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.84 | -0.15 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.74 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.25 | 0.66 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 1.81 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Dowd
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 10G 19A, 45 SOG · Dowd 1G 1A, 14 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 6–11 · neutral 4–20 · McDavid's defensive zone 2–3 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
14:52 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–13
- 48.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.4
- 61.1%
- Goals
- 2–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Dowd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | EDM 1–5 VGK | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-03-26 | EDM 4–3 VGK | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-08 | EDM 4–2 VGK | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-01-24 | EDM 6–5 WSH | 2G 3A 9S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-23 | EDM 3–7 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-13 | EDM 7–2 WSH | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-24 | EDM 5–0 WSH | 0G 4A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-12-05 | EDM 2–3 WSH | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-11-07 | EDM 4–5 WSH | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-03-09 | EDM 4–3 WSH | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-02-02 | EDM 5–3 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2019-10-24 | EDM 4–3 WSH | 1G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Faceoffs: McDavid vs Dowd
Model: Connor McDavid wins 48.7% of draws against Nic Dowd on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| McDavid at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 51% | 46% | 52% | 47% | 49% | 52% | 47% | 53% | 48% |
| Road | 49% | 44% | 50% | 46% | 48% | 50% | 46% | 52% | 47% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: McDavid 4–9 (30.8%). Blended with the model: 48.2%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.3); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to Cvs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 pts
Nic Dowd
3games (2 left)
1.8proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs TBLOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ STL0.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ CBJ0.9 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Nic Dowd in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Nic Dowd?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 30 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Dowd done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 10–4. McDavid had 29 points (10 goals) and Dowd had 2 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Dowd?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 12 and Dowd 34 of their 46 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →