Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Nic Dowd
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games.
This week MacKinnon has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Dowd has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Dowd's 1.8 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 71.8%, Power-play share 79.5%, Offensive-zone time 46.6%.
Dowd's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.007, Hits 140, Blocked shots 50.
Head to head on the dot, Dowd leads MacKinnon 35–18.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -3.9 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88); Dowd is steady, ixG/60 0.05 (was 0.46).
- • MacKinnon, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
- • Dowd, 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • Dowd, last 10 games (Oct 2–Oct 20): 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · Vegas Golden Knights · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Nic Dowd
-3.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (MacKinnon wins 5, Dowd wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | MacKinnon | Dowd |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.64 | 0.04 |
| Assists / game | 0.96 | 0.20 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.43 | -0.15 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 4.38 | 0.66 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 1.81 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Dowd
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 11G 15A, 80 SOG · Dowd 2G 3A, 21 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 9–16 · neutral 7–14 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 2–5 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
MacKinnon blocked 0 of Dowd's shots; Dowd blocked 4 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
18:27 at 5-on-5 over 6 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 23–20
- 53.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.9
- 44.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Dowd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 · PO | COL 1–2 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-05-24 · PO | COL 3–5 VGK | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-05-22 · PO | COL 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-20 · PO | COL 2–4 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2026-04-11 | COL 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-01-19 | COL 5–2 WSH | 2G 1A 10S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-11-21 | COL 2–1 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-11-15 | COL 2–5 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-02-13 | COL 6–3 WSH | 0G 2A 5S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-01-24 | COL 6–2 WSH | 4G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-19 | COL 4–0 WSH | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-04-18 | COL 2–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Faceoffs: MacKinnon vs Dowd
Model: Nathan MacKinnon wins 49.5% of draws against Nic Dowd on average (R shot vs R shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| MacKinnon at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 42% | 56% | 43% | 57% | 50% | 43% | 57% | 45% | 58% |
| Road | 41% | 54% | 42% | 55% | 49% | 42% | 55% | 43% | 57% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: MacKinnon 11–19 (36.7%). Blended with the model: 48.7%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.4); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Nic Dowd
3games (2 left)
1.8proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs TBLOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ STL0.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ CBJ0.9 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Nic Dowd in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Nic Dowd?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Dowd done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 8–10. MacKinnon had 26 points (11 goals) and Dowd had 5 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Dowd?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 18 and Dowd 35 of their 53 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →