Who to start · 2025-26
Macklin Celebrini vs Nic Dowd
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84.
Celebrini had 115 points in 82 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games.
This week Celebrini has 2 games left with 1 tough matchup; Dowd has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Celebrini for 5.3 to Dowd's 1.8 over the games left.
Macklin Celebrini has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Celebrini's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 68.6%, Goals above expected +5.9, Power-play share 71.8%.
Dowd's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.007, Hits 140, Shorthanded points 1.
Head to head on the dot, Celebrini leads Dowd 6–6.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Macklin Celebrini rates ahead, +13.2 to -3.9 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Celebrini is surging, ixG/60 1.90 (was 1.10); Dowd is steady, ixG/60 0.05 (was 0.46).
- • Celebrini has played 8 of the Sharks' 10 games since Oct 1 (in and out of the lineup).
- • Celebrini, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 5 G, 9 A, 8 PPP, 37 SOG.
- • Dowd, 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • Dowd, last 10 games (Oct 2–Oct 20): 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Macklin Celebrini
+13.2
category z-score total
Nic Dowd
-3.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Macklin Celebrini has the edge (Celebrini wins 5, Dowd wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | Celebrini | Dowd |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.58 | 0.04 |
| Assists / game | 0.95 | 0.20 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.06 | -0.15 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.61 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.89 | 0.66 |
| Hits / game | 0.64 | 1.81 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Celebrini vs Dowd
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Celebrini 1G 2A, 16 SOG · Dowd 1G 0A, 4 SOG
Celebrini's offensive zone 2–3 · neutral 2–2 · Celebrini's defensive zone 2–1 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Celebrini's side)
8:00 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Celebrini's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–5
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.3
- 55.0%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Celebrini | Dowd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | SJS 3–2 WSH | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-12-03 | SJS 1–7 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-15 | SJS 1–5 WSH | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-03 | SJS 2–1 WSH | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
Faceoffs: Celebrini vs Dowd
Model: Macklin Celebrini wins 48.4% of draws against Nic Dowd on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Celebrini at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 48% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Road | 47% | 46% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 49% | 49% |
Head-to-head 2024-25 to 2025-26: Celebrini 6–6 (50.0%). Blended with the model: 48.4%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.1); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Macklin Celebrini
4games (2 left)
5.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ TOROpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ MTLB2B
- Thu, Oct 22 @ OTT2.8 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ BOS2.5 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
Nic Dowd
3games (2 left)
1.8proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs TBLOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ STL0.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ CBJ0.9 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Macklin Celebrini or Nic Dowd in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84. Celebrini had 115 points in 82 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Macklin Celebrini or Nic Dowd?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Macklin Celebrini leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Celebrini and Dowd done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Celebrini's team went 2–2. Celebrini had 3 points (1 goals) and Dowd had 1 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Celebrini or Dowd?
- Against each other, Celebrini has won 6 and Dowd 6 of their 12 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →