Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Noah Ostlund
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Ostlund's 1.13.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Ostlund had 27 in 60 games.
This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Ostlund has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Ostlund's 2.2 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.12, Top skating speed 24.6, Shots on goal 306.
Ostlund's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1030, Hardest shot 87.3, Luck Meter +46.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to +0.6 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Ostlund is surging, ixG/60 0.99 (was 0.61).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 1 PPP, 20 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Noah Ostlund
+0.6
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 6, Ostlund wins 0 of 6 categories).
| Category | McDavid | Ostlund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.62 | 0.20 |
| Assists / game | 1.52 | 0.33 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.84 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.74 | 0.10 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.25 | 1.46 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 0.09 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Ostlund
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2025-26 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 0G 0A, 1 SOG · Ostlund 2G 0A, 3 SOG
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
1:20 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 1–1
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.0
- 27.1%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Ostlund |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | EDM 1–5 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 3S |
Faceoffs: McDavid vs Ostlund
Model: Connor McDavid wins 61.0% of draws against Noah Ostlund on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| McDavid at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 69% | 52% | 70% | 54% | 62% | 70% | 54% | 71% | 55% |
| Road | 67% | 51% | 68% | 52% | 61% | 68% | 52% | 70% | 53% |
They have not faced each other on a draw in the seasons we track.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Noah Ostlund
2games
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI1.3 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH1.0 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Noah Ostlund in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Ostlund's 1.13. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Ostlund had 27 in 60 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Noah Ostlund?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Ostlund done against each other?
- In 1 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 0–1. McDavid had 0 points (0 goals) and Ostlund had 2 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →