Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Noah Ostlund
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Ostlund's 1.13.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Ostlund had 27 in 60 games.
This week MacKinnon has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Ostlund has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Ostlund's 2.2 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 32 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.8, Shots on goal 350, Transition attempts /60 1.83.
Ostlund's biggest edges: Ascension score 92, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.041, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.07.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to +0.6 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88); Ostlund is surging, ixG/60 0.99 (was 0.61).
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 1 PPP, 20 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · Buffalo Sabres · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Noah Ostlund
+0.6
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (MacKinnon wins 6, Ostlund wins 0 of 6 categories).
| Category | MacKinnon | Ostlund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.64 | 0.20 |
| Assists / game | 0.96 | 0.33 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| Shots on goal / game | 4.38 | 1.46 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 0.09 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Ostlund
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2025-26 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 0G 1A, 8 SOG · Ostlund 0G 0A, 2 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 2–0 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 0–1 (2025-26)
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
3:04 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–5
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.2
- 72.0%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Ostlund |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | COL 6–3 BUF | 0G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 2S |
Faceoffs: MacKinnon vs Ostlund
Model: Nathan MacKinnon wins 62.0% of draws against Noah Ostlund on average (R shot vs L shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| MacKinnon at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 61% | 62% | 62% | 63% | 62% | 62% | 63% | 63% | 64% |
| Road | 60% | 61% | 61% | 62% | 62% | 61% | 62% | 62% | 63% |
Head-to-head 2025-26: MacKinnon 2–1 (66.7%). Blended with the model: 62.1%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.2); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Noah Ostlund
2games
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI1.3 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH1.0 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Noah Ostlund in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Ostlund's 1.13. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Ostlund had 27 in 60 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Noah Ostlund?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 32 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Ostlund done against each other?
- In 1 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 1–0. MacKinnon had 1 points (0 goals) and Ostlund had 0 (0 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Ostlund?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 2 and Ostlund 1 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →