Who to start · 2025-26
Jack McBain vs Nic Dowd
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jack McBain projects to 1.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84.
McBain had 25 points in 75 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games.
This week McBain has 2 games left with 1 tough matchup; Dowd has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project McBain for 2.4 to Dowd's 1.8 over the games left.
Jack McBain has the better number in 26 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McBain's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.31, High-danger chances 55.9%, Plus/minus +11.
Dowd's biggest edges: Luck Meter −25, Top skating speed 22.1, Goals above expected −3.1.
Head to head on the dot, Dowd leads McBain 7–3.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Jack McBain rates ahead, +1.8 to -3.9 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McBain is cooling, ixG/60 0.52 (was 1.12); Dowd is steady, ixG/60 0.05 (was 0.46).
- • McBain, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.
- • Dowd, 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • Dowd, last 10 games (Oct 2–Oct 20): 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Jack McBain
+1.8
category z-score total
Nic Dowd
-3.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Jack McBain has the edge (McBain wins 5, Dowd wins 0 of 6 categories).
| Category | McBain | Dowd |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| Assists / game | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.25 | -0.15 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.25 | 0.66 |
| Hits / game | 3.81 | 1.81 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McBain vs Dowd
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McBain 3G 2A, 13 SOG · Dowd 2G 1A, 11 SOG
McBain's offensive zone 2–2 · neutral 0–5 · McBain's defensive zone 1–0 (2021-22 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McBain's side)
12:38 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from McBain's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–12
- 45.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.4
- 54.3%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McBain | Dowd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 · PO | UTA 1–5 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-04-19 · PO | UTA 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-19 | UTA 4–0 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-03-03 | UTA 3–2 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-02-09 | UTA 5–4 WSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-18 | UTA 2–6 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-11-05 | ARI 3–2 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-22 | ARI 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
Faceoffs: McBain vs Dowd
Model: Jack McBain wins 49.1% of draws against Nic Dowd on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| McBain at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50% | 48% | 51% | 49% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 52% | 50% |
| Road | 48% | 46% | 49% | 47% | 49% | 49% | 47% | 51% | 49% |
Head-to-head 2024-25 to 2025-26: McBain 2–3 (40.0%). Blended with the model: 49.0%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.4); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Jack McBain
3games (2 left)
2.4proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 vs PITOpp allows 13th-most FP to CLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ SEA1.2 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TBL1.1 pts
Nic Dowd
3games (2 left)
1.8proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs TBLOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ STL0.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ CBJ0.9 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jack McBain or Nic Dowd in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jack McBain projects to 1.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.84. McBain had 25 points in 75 games; Dowd had 21 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jack McBain or Nic Dowd?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jack McBain leads in 26 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McBain and Dowd done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, McBain's team went 4–4. McBain had 5 points (3 goals) and Dowd had 3 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McBain or Dowd?
- Against each other, McBain has won 3 and Dowd 7 of their 10 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →