Who to start · 2025-26
Justin Hryckowian vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Justin Hryckowian's 0.87.
Hryckowian had 30 points in 81 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Hryckowian has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Hryckowian's 1.9 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 26 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Hryckowian's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.024, Hits 119, Faceoff win % 55.1%.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.83, Offensive-zone start % 71.8%, Top skating speed 24.8.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Hryckowian 12–4.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -2.2 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Hryckowian is cooling, 0 P in last 5 (0.35/GP before); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • Hryckowian, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 9 SOG.
- • MacKinnon, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Dallas Stars · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Justin Hryckowian
-2.2
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Hryckowian wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Hryckowian | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.11 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.12 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.01 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.02 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 1.79 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Hryckowian vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Hryckowian 1G 1A, 8 SOG · MacKinnon 3G 8A, 22 SOG
Hryckowian's offensive zone 0–2 · neutral 1–3 · Hryckowian's defensive zone 3–7 (2025-26 to 2026-27)
On the ice against each other (Hryckowian's side)
26:52 at 5-on-5 over 6 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Hryckowian's side
- Shot attempts
- 18–28
- 39.1%
- Expected goals
- 1.3–0.5
- 71.5%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hryckowian | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | DAL 3–2 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-10-13 | DAL 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2026-04-04 | DAL 0–2 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2026-03-18 | DAL 2–1 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2026-03-06 | DAL 4–5 COL | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2025-10-11 | DAL 5–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2025-01-18 | DAL 3–6 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
Faceoffs: Hryckowian vs MacKinnon
Model: Justin Hryckowian wins 52.8% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Hryckowian at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 52% | 52% | 53% | 54% | 53% | 53% | 54% | 55% | 55% |
| Road | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 53% | 52% | 52% | 53% | 53% |
Head-to-head 2025-26 to 2026-27: Hryckowian 4–12 (25.0%). Blended with the model: 51.9%. The record is unusual for this matchup (z -2.2); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Hryckowian faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Justin Hryckowian
3games (2 left)
1.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs BOSOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs WPG1.1 ptsOpp allows 8th-most FP to Cvs Stuart Skinner (.888)
- Sun, Oct 25 vs NYI0.9 ptsOpp allows the fewest FP to CLikely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Justin Hryckowian or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Justin Hryckowian's 0.87. Hryckowian had 30 points in 81 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Justin Hryckowian or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 26 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Hryckowian and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, Hryckowian's team went 3–4. Hryckowian had 2 points (1 goals) and MacKinnon had 11 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Hryckowian or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Hryckowian has won 4 and MacKinnon 12 of their 16 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →