Who to start · 2025-26
Mikael Backlund vs Ross Colton
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mikael Backlund projects to 1.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ross Colton's 1.08.
Backlund had 43 points in 82 games; Colton had 24 in 73 games.
This week Backlund has 2 games left; Colton has 3 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Colton for 3.8 to Backlund's 2.0 over the games left.
They split the 36 stats both are ranked on 18–18.
Backlund's biggest edges: Luck Meter +29, Goals above expected +1.6, Ice time per game 17:57.
Colton's biggest edges: Hits 159, Scoring chances 59.3%, Expected goals 58.1%.
Head to head on the dot, Colton leads Backlund 8–6.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Ross Colton rates ahead, -0.8 to -0.9 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Backlund is steady, ixG/60 1.23 (was 0.58); Colton is steady, On-ice xGF/60 1.57 (was 2.27).
- • Backlund, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 24 SOG.
- • Colton, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
Calgary Flames · Nashville Predators · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mikael Backlund
-0.9
category z-score total
Ross Colton
-0.8
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Ross Colton has the edge (Backlund wins 4, Colton wins 2 of 6 categories).
| Category | Backlund | Colton |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| Assists / game | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 2.52 | 1.71 |
| Hits / game | 0.49 | 2.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Backlund vs Colton
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Backlund 2G 4A, 20 SOG · Colton 1G 3A, 22 SOG
Backlund's offensive zone 3–3 · neutral 2–5 · Backlund's defensive zone 1–0 (2022-23 to 2023-24)
On the ice against each other (Backlund's side)
3:06 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Backlund's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–4
- 55.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.1
- 78.2%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Backlund | Colton |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | CGY 1–3 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-04-09 | CGY 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-03-30 | CGY 2–9 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-31 | CGY 3–2 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-02-06 | CGY 2–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-12 | CGY 2–6 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-12-11 | CGY 5–6 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-11-25 | CGY 1–3 COL | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-21 | CGY 6–3 TBL | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-11-17 | CGY 1–4 TBL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-03-10 | CGY 4–1 TBL | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 5S |
Faceoffs: Backlund vs Colton
Model: Mikael Backlund wins 51.6% of draws against Ross Colton on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Backlund at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 58% | 44% | 59% | 45% | 52% | 59% | 45% | 60% | 47% |
| Road | 57% | 43% | 58% | 44% | 51% | 58% | 44% | 59% | 45% |
Head-to-head 2023-24: Backlund 4–5 (44.4%). Blended with the model: 51.5%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.4); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Mikael Backlund
2games
2.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 vs MIN1.0 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs DET1.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Ross Colton
3games
3.8proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 @ BOS1.1 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ PIT1.3 ptsOpp allows 13th-most FP to CLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mikael Backlund or Ross Colton in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mikael Backlund projects to 1.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ross Colton's 1.08. Backlund had 43 points in 82 games; Colton had 24 in 73 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mikael Backlund or Ross Colton?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 18–18 across 36 stats where both qualify.
- How have Backlund and Colton done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, Backlund's team went 3–8. Backlund had 6 points (2 goals) and Colton had 4 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Backlund or Colton?
- Against each other, Backlund has won 6 and Colton 8 of their 14 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →