Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Ross Colton
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ross Colton's 1.08.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Colton had 24 in 73 games.
This week MacKinnon has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Colton has 3 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Colton's 3.8 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Luck Meter +52, Ice time per game 22:16.
Colton's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.006, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.66, Hits 159.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -0.8 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88); Colton is steady, On-ice xGF/60 1.57 (was 2.27).
- • MacKinnon, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
- • Colton, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Ross Colton
-0.8
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (MacKinnon wins 5, Colton wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | MacKinnon | Colton |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.64 | 0.12 |
| Assists / game | 0.96 | 0.18 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.43 | -0.05 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 4.38 | 1.71 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 2.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Colton
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 4G 7A, 47 SOG · Colton 0G 1A, 12 SOG
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
29:24 at 5-on-5 over 18 games, 2025-26
- Shot attempts
- 36–35
- 50.7%
- Expected goals
- 2.5–1.1
- 68.2%
- Goals
- 4–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Colton |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-14 | COL 3–4 TBL | 1G 1A 7S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-02-09 | COL 0–5 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-06-26 · PO | COL 2–1 TBL | 1G 1A 7S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-06-24 · PO | COL 2–3 TBL | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-06-22 · PO | COL 3–2 TBL | 1G 0A 8S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-06-20 · PO | COL 2–6 TBL | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-06-18 · PO | COL 7–0 TBL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-06-15 · PO | COL 4–3 TBL | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-10-23 | COL 4–3 TBL | 1G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
Faceoffs: MacKinnon vs Colton
Model: Nathan MacKinnon wins 50.7% of draws against Ross Colton on average (R shot vs L shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| MacKinnon at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 49% | 52% | 50% | 53% | 51% | 50% | 53% | 51% | 54% |
| Road | 47% | 51% | 48% | 52% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 50% | 53% |
They have not faced each other on a draw in the seasons we track.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
Chemistry as teammates
How their expected-goal share at 5v5 changed together vs apart (shrunk for sample size), and how closely their DraftKings points moved game to game (raw, that season only; for forward linemates the typical value is about .28).
| Season | 5v5 min together | xG% lift | xGF/60 lift | DK correlation (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 COL | 143 | +5.4 | +0.36 | .58(.04 to .86), 10 GP |
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Ross Colton
3games
3.8proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 @ BOS1.1 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ PIT1.3 ptsOpp allows 13th-most FP to CLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Ross Colton in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ross Colton's 1.08. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Colton had 24 in 73 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Ross Colton?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Colton done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 5–4. MacKinnon had 11 points (4 goals) and Colton had 1 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →