Who to start · 2025-26
Mitch Marner vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88.
Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Marner has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Marner for 2.3 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Mitch Marner has the better number in 19 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Marner's biggest edges: Goals above expected +3.2, Plus/minus +17, On-ice PDO 1019.
Hertl's biggest edges: Faceoff win % 57.8%, Draw Equity /100 +0.096, Hits 114.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mitch Marner
1.88
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Marner | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.67 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Marner vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marner 6G 12A, 23 SOG · Hertl 2G 2A, 19 SOG
Marner's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Marner's defensive zone 0–0 (2017-18)
Marner blocked 0 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 14 of Marner's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
297:57 at 5-on-5 over 41 games, 2025-26
- Shot attempts
- 348–229
- 60.3%
- Expected goals
- 14.4–8.9
- 61.8%
- Goals
- 18–8
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marner | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-05 | TOR 2–5 VGK | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2024-11-20 | TOR 3–0 VGK | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-09 | TOR 7–1 SJS | 2G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-06 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-30 | TOR 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-10-27 | TOR 3–4 SJS | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-11-26 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-10-22 | TOR 3–5 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2019-10-25 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2018-11-28 | TOR 5–3 SJS | 0G 3A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2018-01-04 | TOR 3–2 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2017-10-30 | TOR 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANALikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANALikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mitch Marner or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88. Marner had 80 points in 81 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mitch Marner or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mitch Marner leads in 19 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Marner and Hertl done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Marner's team went 8–4. Marner had 18 points (6 goals) and Hertl had 4 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Marner or Hertl?
- Against each other, Marner has won 1 and Hertl 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →