Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Sean Couturier
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sean Couturier's 0.98.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Couturier had 36 in 78 games.
This week MacKinnon has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Couturier has 2 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Couturier's 1.9 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.8, Offensive-zone start % 71.8%, Offensive-zone time 46.6%.
Couturier's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.007, Draw Equity /100 +0.058, Faceoff win % 54.2%.
Head to head on the dot, Couturier leads MacKinnon 55–37.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -2.1 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88); Couturier is steady, On-ice xGF/60 1.21 (was 2.38).
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 13 SOG.
- • Last 10 games (Oct 1–Oct 19): 0 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 13 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · Philadelphia Flyers · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Sean Couturier
-2.1
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (MacKinnon wins 5, Couturier wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | MacKinnon | Couturier |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.64 | 0.09 |
| Assists / game | 0.96 | 0.29 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.43 | -0.11 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal / game | 4.38 | 1.38 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 1.51 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Couturier
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 5G 12A, 53 SOG · Couturier 2G 7A, 32 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 12–20 · neutral 12–13 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 13–22 (2017-18 to 2026-27)
MacKinnon blocked 1 of Couturier's shots; Couturier blocked 1 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
9:18 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–6
- 57.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.2
- 73.8%
- Goals
- 2–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Couturier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | COL 2–3 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-01-23 | COL 3–7 PHI | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-07 | COL 3–2 PHI | 0G 1A 6S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-02-02 | COL 2–0 PHI | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-18 | COL 3–2 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-20 | COL 7–4 PHI | 2G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2023-12-09 | COL 2–5 PHI | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-12-06 | COL 7–5 PHI | 0G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2020-02-01 | COL 3–6 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 3A 1S |
| 2019-12-11 | COL 3–1 PHI | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2018-10-22 | COL 4–1 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2018-10-06 | COL 5–2 PHI | 1G 1A 7S | 1G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Faceoffs: MacKinnon vs Couturier
Model: Nathan MacKinnon wins 43.7% of draws against Sean Couturier on average (R shot vs L shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| MacKinnon at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 43% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 46% |
| Road | 42% | 42% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 44% | 45% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2026-27: MacKinnon 24–24 (50.0%). Blended with the model: 44.2%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.9); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
MacKinnon faceoffs · Couturier faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Sean Couturier
3games (2 left)
1.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 vs COLOpp allows 15th-most FP to CLikely vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
- Wed, Oct 21 @ BUF1.0 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs ANA1.0 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Sean Couturier in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sean Couturier's 0.98. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Couturier had 36 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Sean Couturier?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Couturier done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 9–5. MacKinnon had 17 points (5 goals) and Couturier had 9 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Couturier?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 37 and Couturier 55 of their 92 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →