Draw Duel
Justin Sourdif faceoff stats, 2025-26
WSH · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
45.9%
90%: 43.1%–48.7% vs an average regular, on 691 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.9%
316 won of 688 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
47.7% / 44.5%
344 strong-side, 182 weak-side draws this season
Next game
2.9 FOW
2026-10-07 vs PIT: 6 draws at 49.1%, range 1–5
Where Sourdif wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 52 | 23 | 44.2% |
| OZ right | 130 | 61 | 46.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| NZ right (att.) | 18 | 7 | 38.9% |
| Centre | 162 | 71 | 43.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 27 | 9 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 24 | 8 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 92 | 44 | 47.8% |
| DZ right | 172 | 88 | 51.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R37.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R38.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L57.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L55.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 33.3% 3 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 45.9% 688 | 45.4% 650 | 50.0% 24 | 64.3% 14 | 46.2% 182 | 41.3% 242 | 50.0% 264 | 47.7% 344 | 44.5% 182 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 11–12 | 47.8% | 39.3% | 39.6% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Dylan Larkin | 10–10 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 43.5% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Nico Hischier | 10–10 | 50.0% | 40.1% | 40.5% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Adam Fantilli | 10–7 | 58.8% | 49.2% | 49.5% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Nazem Kadri | 5–10 | 33.3% | 49.8% | 49.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 7–7 | 50.0% | 44.2% | 44.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Anze Kopitar | 7–6 | 53.8% | 39.9% | 40.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Sebastian Aho | 3–10 | 23.1% | 44.7% | 44.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Ryan Greene | 4–8 | 33.3% | 50.5% | 50.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Leo Carlsson | 6–5 | 54.5% | 53.7% | 53.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 4–7 | 36.4% | 47.3% | 47.0% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Noah Cates | 6–5 | 54.5% | 51.7% | 51.8% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ TBL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | @ CAR | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ CBJ | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PIT | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ PIT | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-08 | @ TOR | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ NYR | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs BUF | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ NJD | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PHI | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (42%), Ben Kindel (55%)2.9 FOW 1–5
- 2026-10-09 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (40%), Mika Zibanejad (47%)2.6 FOW 0–5
- 2026-10-11 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (45%), Matty Beniers (50%)2.9 FOW 1–5
FAQ
What is Justin Sourdif's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Justin Sourdif's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Justin Sourdif win tonight?
When Justin Sourdif has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Justin Sourdif better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.