Draw Duel
Matt Boldy faceoff stats, 2025-26
MIN · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
45.8%
90%: 42.0%–49.7% vs an average regular, on 386 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
44.4%
55 won of 124 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
47.8% / 38.0%
69 strong-side, 50 weak-side draws this season
Next game
1.6 FOW
2026-10-06 vs BUF: 3 draws at 51.1%, range 0–3
Where Boldy wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 56 | 27 | 48.2% |
| OZ right | 32 | 15 | 46.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R37.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R38.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R38.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L57.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L55.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 44.4% 124 | 46.5% 71 | 42.9% 49 | 25.0% 4 | 48.3% 87 | 20.0% 15 | 45.5% 22 | 47.8% 69 | 38.0% 50 |
| 2024-25 | 46.4% 125 | 44.3% 88 | 53.1% 32 | 40.0% 5 | 45.8% 72 | 63.3% 30 | 26.1% 23 | 46.9% 64 | 42.6% 47 |
| 2023-24 | 42.0% 88 | 37.5% 64 | 56.5% 23 | 0.0% 1 | 44.3% 61 | 35.3% 17 | 40.0% 10 | 41.2% 51 | 42.4% 33 |
| Playoffs (all) | 46.8% 47 | 34.6% 26 | 60.0% 20 | 100.0% 1 | 50.0% 32 | 38.5% 13 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 28 | 38.5% 13 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson | 11–6 | 64.7% | 48.9% | 49.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Robert Thomas | 4–6 | 40.0% | 43.6% | 43.5% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Jack Drury | 4–5 | 44.4% | 43.6% | 43.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 4–4 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 47.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Adam Lowry | 4–2 | 66.7% | 50.7% | 50.9% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Roope Hintz | 3–3 | 50.0% | 43.9% | 44.0% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 3–3 | 50.0% | 45.7% | 45.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Charlie Coyle | 1–4 | 20.0% | 45.6% | 45.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Mikael Backlund | 2–3 | 40.0% | 46.2% | 46.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Jake Evans | 2–3 | 40.0% | 39.6% | 39.6% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 1–4 | 20.0% | 39.7% | 39.5% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Jason Dickinson | 1–4 | 20.0% | 45.9% | 45.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs BOS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-13 | @ COL | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-11 | vs COL | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-05-09 | vs COL | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | @ COL | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
| 2026-05-03 | @ COL | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DAL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ DAL | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs DAL | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (47%), Ryan McLeod (48%)1.6 FOW 0–3
- 2026-10-08 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (49%), Brayden Point (49%)1.6 FOW 0–3
- 2026-10-10 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (45%), Aleksander Barkov (43%)1.5 FOW 0–3
FAQ
What is Matt Boldy's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Matt Boldy's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Matt Boldy win tonight?
When Matt Boldy has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Matt Boldy better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.