Draw Duel
Michael Rasmussen faceoff stats, 2025-26
DET · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
47.1%
90%: 43.8%–50.4% vs an average regular, on 604 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
46.2%
132 won of 286 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
49.6% / 40.0%
131 strong-side, 100 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.8 FOW
2026-10-04 vs WPG: 2 draws at 51.0%, range 0–2
Where Rasmussen wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 63 | 26 | 41.3% |
| OZ right | 23 | 10 | 43.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| Centre | 55 | 27 | 49.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
| DZ left | 49 | 30 | 61.2% |
| DZ right | 58 | 26 | 44.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L39.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.5%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 46.2% 286 | 45.8% 262 | 62.5% 8 | 43.8% 16 | 41.9% 86 | 43.0% 93 | 52.3% 107 | 49.6% 131 | 40.0% 100 |
| 2024-25 | 46.4% 196 | 47.3% 184 | 44.4% 9 | 0.0% 3 | 40.5% 84 | 50.0% 54 | 51.7% 58 | 43.4% 83 | 46.7% 75 |
| 2023-24 | 48.3% 120 | 48.1% 108 | 60.0% 5 | 42.9% 7 | 56.4% 39 | 42.6% 47 | 47.1% 34 | 60.4% 53 | 37.1% 35 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller | 7–10 | 41.2% | 43.3% | 43.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Dylan Strome | 6–5 | 54.5% | 43.0% | 43.2% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Quinton Byfield | 3–7 | 30.0% | 48.9% | 48.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| John Tavares | 4–6 | 40.0% | 41.6% | 41.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Brayden Point | 5–5 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 51.7% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Jake Evans | 4–6 | 40.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Jack McBain | 4–5 | 44.4% | 47.0% | 46.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sam Carrick | 2–7 | 22.2% | 43.5% | 43.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Mark Jankowski | 2–7 | 22.2% | 47.0% | 46.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Dylan Cozens | 4–4 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 47.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Mason McTavish | 7–1 | 87.5% | 51.7% | 52.3% | unusual (z 2.0) |
| Luke Kunin | 4–4 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 49.5% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs NYR | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CBJ | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs MIN | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ NYR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ TBL | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ FLA | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ NJD | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-03-06 | vs FLA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-04 | vs VGK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | @ CAR | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (47%), Jonathan Toews (43%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-06 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (39%), Lars Eller (48%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-09 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (50%), Matty Beniers (52%)0.9 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (46%), Phillip Danault (46%)0.8 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Michael Rasmussen's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Michael Rasmussen's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Michael Rasmussen win tonight?
When Michael Rasmussen has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Michael Rasmussen better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.