Draw Duel
Nate Danielson faceoff stats, 2025-26
DET · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
37.6%
90%: 33.0%–42.4% vs an average regular, on 154 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
37.7%
55 won of 146 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
39.5% / 24.0%
81 strong-side, 25 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.7 FOW
2026-10-04 vs WPG: 9 draws at 40.9%, range 1–7
Where Danielson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| OZ right | 27 | 11 | 40.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| Centre | 41 | 17 | 41.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
| DZ left | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| DZ right | 37 | 16 | 43.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Aatu Räty VAN · L30.2%
- Claude Giroux OTT · R30.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R30.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L31.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L31.3%
- Jack Drury NSH · L31.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L50.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L50.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L49.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L47.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L46.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R46.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 8 | 42.9% 7 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 66.7% 3 | 25.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 | 60.0% 5 | 50.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 37.7% 146 | 37.9% 140 | 20.0% 5 | 100.0% 1 | 35.5% 31 | 38.6% 70 | 37.8% 45 | 39.5% 81 | 24.0% 25 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Cizikas | 2–8 | 20.0% | 34.5% | 34.2% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Ryan Greene | 1–5 | 16.7% | 46.6% | 46.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Mark Jankowski | 2–4 | 33.3% | 38.4% | 38.4% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 2–3 | 40.0% | 41.5% | 41.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Yanni Gourde | 4–1 | 80.0% | 40.8% | 41.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Nick Foligno | 0–5 | 0.0% | 39.9% | 39.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Shane Wright | 2–2 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 45.5% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Nic Dowd | 0–4 | 0.0% | 34.1% | 33.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Dylan Strome | 0–4 | 0.0% | 33.4% | 33.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Isac Lundeström | 0–3 | 0.0% | 39.8% | 39.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 2–1 | 66.7% | 40.3% | 40.4% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Joseph Veleno | 1–2 | 33.3% | 38.2% | 38.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs NYR | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | vs PIT | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-01-01 | @ PIT | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | vs WPG | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2025-12-28 | vs TOR | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2025-12-27 | @ CAR | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2025-12-23 | vs DAL | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2025-12-21 | vs WSH | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WSH | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2025-12-17 | vs UTA | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (35%), Jonathan Toews (30%)3.7 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-06 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (33%), Lars Eller (37%)3.6 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-09 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (37%), Matty Beniers (42%)3.9 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (38%), Phillip Danault (34%)3.5 FOW 1–6
FAQ
What is Nate Danielson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nate Danielson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nate Danielson win tonight?
When Nate Danielson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nate Danielson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.