Draw Duel
Oliver Moore faceoff stats, 2025-26
CHI · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
43.4%
90%: 39.1%–47.8% vs an average regular, on 241 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.3%
99 won of 205 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
50.9% / 41.5%
110 strong-side, 41 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.5 FOW
2026-10-06 vs STL: 1 draws at 48.5%, range 0–2
Where Moore wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 71 | 38 | 53.5% |
| OZ right | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
| Centre | 54 | 26 | 48.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
| NZ right (def.) | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| DZ left | 25 | 9 | 36.0% |
| DZ right | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R36.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L36.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L54.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L52.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R52.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 66.7% 9 | 62.5% 8 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 100.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 66.7% 6 | 71.4% 7 | 100.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 48.3% 205 | 50.3% 187 | 33.3% 15 | 0.0% 3 | 48.8% 86 | 51.2% 82 | 40.5% 37 | 50.9% 110 | 41.5% 41 |
| 2024-25 | 40.7% 27 | 40.0% 25 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 33.3% 9 | 53.8% 13 | 20.0% 5 | 33.3% 12 | 42.9% 7 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle | 5–3 | 62.5% | 43.4% | 43.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Dylan Strome | 3–5 | 37.5% | 37.1% | 37.1% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Nic Dowd | 5–2 | 71.4% | 43.5% | 43.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Sebastian Aho | 2–4 | 33.3% | 47.5% | 47.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 5–1 | 83.3% | 44.7% | 45.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Nazem Kadri | 4–2 | 66.7% | 45.8% | 46.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Logan Stankoven | 3–2 | 60.0% | 49.1% | 49.2% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Hendrix Lapierre | 4–1 | 80.0% | 54.0% | 54.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 60.0% | 45.4% | 45.6% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Justin Sourdif | 2–3 | 40.0% | 47.5% | 47.4% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Dalibor Dvorsky | 2–2 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 50.8% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Erik Haula | 1–3 | 25.0% | 44.1% | 44.0% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ BUF | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ UTA | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ VGK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ DAL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-06 | vs VAN | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ WPG | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-01 | @ UTA | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | @ CBJ | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-02-02 | vs SJS | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-01-30 | vs CBJ | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (42%), Mason McTavish (48%)0.5 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (41%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (35%)0.5 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (40%), Sebastian Aho (45%)0.5 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Oliver Moore's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Oliver Moore's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Oliver Moore win tonight?
When Oliver Moore has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Oliver Moore better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.