Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Dylan Larkin
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Larkin has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Larkin's 2.2.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 28 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: High-danger chances 57.5%, Scoring chances 54.1%, Expected goals 56.5%.
Larkin's biggest edges: Hardest shot 91.7, Faceoff win % 52.9%, Draw Equity /100 +0.029.
Head to head on the dot, Larkin leads McDavid 57–47.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.21
fantasy points per game
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.10 | 0.45 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Larkin
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 3G 23A, 56 SOG · Larkin 7G 8A, 65 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 13–18 · neutral 18–21 · McDavid's defensive zone 16–18 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
McDavid blocked 0 of Larkin's shots; Larkin blocked 2 of McDavid's.
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
21:57 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 16–17
- 48.5%
- Expected goals
- 1.0–0.5
- 68.4%
- Goals
- 1–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Larkin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | EDM 4–1 DET | 0G 4A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-19 | EDM 2–4 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 2A 2S |
| 2025-01-30 | EDM 2–3 DET | 0G 1A 5S | 1G 0A 11S |
| 2024-10-27 | EDM 3–2 DET | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-02-13 | EDM 8–4 DET | 0G 6A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-11 | EDM 3–2 DET | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-02-15 | EDM 4–5 DET | 0G 2A 8S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2023-02-07 | EDM 5–2 DET | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-03-15 | EDM 7–5 DET | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-11-09 | EDM 2–4 DET | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2019-10-29 | EDM 1–3 DET | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 7S |
| 2019-10-18 | EDM 2–1 DET | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Dylan Larkin in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Dylan Larkin?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 28 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Larkin done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 9–7. McDavid had 26 points (3 goals) and Larkin had 15 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Larkin?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 47 and Larkin 57 of their 104 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →