Who to start · 2025-26
Frederick Gaudreau vs Macklin Celebrini
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Frederick Gaudreau's 1.39.
Gaudreau had 24 points in 68 games; Celebrini had 115 in 82 games.
This week Gaudreau has 2 games left; Celebrini has 2 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Celebrini for 5.3 to Gaudreau's 2.4 over the games left.
Macklin Celebrini has the better number in 33 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Gaudreau's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.023, Forecheck xG /60 0.31.
Celebrini's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 68.6%, Offensive-zone time 44.5%, Hardest shot 97.9.
Head to head on the dot, Gaudreau leads Celebrini 8–6.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Macklin Celebrini rates ahead, +13.2 to -1.3 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Gaudreau is steady, 4 P in last 5 (0.40/GP before); Celebrini is surging, ixG/60 1.90 (was 1.10).
- • Gaudreau, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 5 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • Celebrini has played 8 of the Sharks' 10 games since Oct 1 (in and out of the lineup).
- • Celebrini, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 5 G, 9 A, 8 PPP, 37 SOG.
Seattle Kraken · San Jose Sharks · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Frederick Gaudreau
-1.3
category z-score total
Macklin Celebrini
+13.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Macklin Celebrini has the edge (Gaudreau wins 1, Celebrini wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Gaudreau | Celebrini |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.26 | 0.58 |
| Assists / game | 0.23 | 0.95 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.10 | 3.89 |
| Hits / game | 0.47 | 0.64 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Gaudreau vs Celebrini
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Gaudreau 0G 3A, 10 SOG · Celebrini 5G 5A, 19 SOG
Gaudreau's offensive zone 3–1 · neutral 1–1 · Gaudreau's defensive zone 4–4 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Gaudreau's side)
7:35 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Gaudreau's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–14
- 36.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.9
- 16.8%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Gaudreau | Celebrini |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | SEA 4–2 SJS | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-11-15 | SEA 4–1 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-04-09 | MIN 8–7 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 3G 2A 4S |
| 2025-01-11 | MIN 3–1 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2024-11-07 | MIN 5–2 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 2G 0A 7S |
Faceoffs: Gaudreau vs Celebrini
Model: Frederick Gaudreau wins 48.3% of draws against Macklin Celebrini on average (R shot vs L shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Gaudreau at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 47% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Road | 46% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 49% |
Head-to-head 2024-25 to 2025-26: Gaudreau 8–6 (57.1%). Blended with the model: 48.5%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.7); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Gaudreau faceoffs · Celebrini faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Frederick Gaudreau
3games (2 left)
2.4proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs DETOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Daniil Tarasov (.895)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs UTA1.2 ptsOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs MIN1.2 ptsOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
Macklin Celebrini
4games (2 left)
5.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ TOROpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ MTLB2B
- Thu, Oct 22 @ OTT2.8 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ BOS2.5 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Frederick Gaudreau or Macklin Celebrini in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Frederick Gaudreau's 1.39. Gaudreau had 24 points in 68 games; Celebrini had 115 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Frederick Gaudreau or Macklin Celebrini?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Macklin Celebrini leads in 33 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Gaudreau and Celebrini done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Gaudreau's team went 5–0. Gaudreau had 3 points (0 goals) and Celebrini had 10 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Gaudreau or Celebrini?
- Against each other, Gaudreau has won 8 and Celebrini 6 of their 14 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →