Who to start · 2025-26
Frederick Gaudreau vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Frederick Gaudreau's 1.39.
Gaudreau had 24 points in 68 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Gaudreau has 2 games left; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Gaudreau's 2.4 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Gaudreau's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.023, Blocked shots 52, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.22.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 46.6%, Scoring chances 59.3%, Corsi 57.6%.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Gaudreau 23–19.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -1.3 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Gaudreau is steady, 4 P in last 5 (0.40/GP before); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • Gaudreau, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 5 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • MacKinnon, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Frederick Gaudreau
-1.3
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Gaudreau wins 0, MacKinnon wins 6 of 6 categories).
| Category | Gaudreau | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.26 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.23 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.11 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.10 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 0.47 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Gaudreau vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Gaudreau 2G 2A, 21 SOG · MacKinnon 17G 20A, 101 SOG
Gaudreau's offensive zone 7–8 · neutral 3–4 · Gaudreau's defensive zone 9–11 (2018-19 to 2025-26)
Gaudreau blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Gaudreau's.
On the ice against each other (Gaudreau's side)
17:20 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Gaudreau's side
- Shot attempts
- 23–21
- 52.3%
- Expected goals
- 1.0–1.2
- 45.6%
- Goals
- 0–4
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Gaudreau | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | SEA 1–5 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 3A 4S |
| 2025-12-16 | SEA 3–5 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 1A 6S |
| 2025-03-11 | MIN 2–1 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-28 | MIN 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-20 | MIN 3–1 COL | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2025-01-09 | MIN 1–6 COL | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2024-04-09 | MIN 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 3G 1A 10S |
| 2024-04-04 | MIN 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 2A 5S |
| 2024-03-08 | MIN 1–2 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 6S |
| 2023-11-24 | MIN 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-03-29 | MIN 4–2 COL | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-02-15 | MIN 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 6S |
Latest 12 of 21 meetings.
Faceoffs: Gaudreau vs MacKinnon
Model: Frederick Gaudreau wins 47.3% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (R shot vs R shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Gaudreau at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 40% | 54% | 41% | 55% | 47% | 41% | 55% | 42% | 56% |
| Road | 39% | 53% | 40% | 54% | 47% | 40% | 54% | 41% | 55% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Gaudreau 13–15 (46.4%). Blended with the model: 47.2%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.1); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Gaudreau faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Frederick Gaudreau
3games (2 left)
2.4proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs DETOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Daniil Tarasov (.895)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs UTA1.2 ptsOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs MIN1.2 ptsOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Frederick Gaudreau or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Frederick Gaudreau's 1.39. Gaudreau had 24 points in 68 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Frederick Gaudreau or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Gaudreau and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 21 games against each other in our data, Gaudreau's team went 7–14. Gaudreau had 4 points (2 goals) and MacKinnon had 37 (17 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Gaudreau or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Gaudreau has won 19 and MacKinnon 23 of their 42 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →