Who to start · 2025-26
Josh Norris vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Josh Norris's 1.50.
Norris had 34 points in 44 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Norris has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Norris's 2.8 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 32 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Norris's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.020, High-danger chances 55.5%.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Shots on goal 350, Forecheck xG /60 0.34, Goals above expected +4.3.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Norris 10–9.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to +0.3 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Norris is falling, PP1 in 0 of last 5 (was 14 of 20); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Buffalo Sabres · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Josh Norris
+0.3
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Norris wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Norris | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.27 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.34 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.01 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.48 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 0.76 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Norris vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Norris 2G 2A, 9 SOG · MacKinnon 5G 5A, 17 SOG
Norris's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 5–2 · Norris's defensive zone 3–7 (2021-22 to 2024-25)
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Norris | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OTT 4–5 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2023-12-21 | OTT 4–6 COL | 1G 0A 3S | 4G 1A 9S |
| 2021-12-04 | OTT 6–5 COL | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 3A 3S |
Faceoffs: Norris vs MacKinnon
Model: Josh Norris wins 51.5% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Norris at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 53% | 54% |
| Road | 49% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 52% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2024-25: Norris 4–7 (36.4%). Blended with the model: 51.1%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.0); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Josh Norris
2games
2.8proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI1.6 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH1.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Josh Norris or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Josh Norris's 1.50. Norris had 34 points in 44 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Josh Norris or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 32 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Norris and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 3 games against each other in our data, Norris's team went 1–2. Norris had 4 points (2 goals) and MacKinnon had 10 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Norris or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Norris has won 9 and MacKinnon 10 of their 19 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →