Who to start · 2025-26
Lars Eller vs Morgan Barron
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Barron projects to 1.19 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Lars Eller's 0.85.
Eller had 15 points in 68 games; Barron had 23 in 65 games.
This week Eller has 2 games left with 1 soft matchup; Barron has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Barron for 2.2 to Eller's 1.7 over the games left.
Morgan Barron has the better number in 18 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Eller's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.52, Ascension score 80, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031.
Barron's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.6, Hardest shot 95.6, Penalty minutes 31.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Morgan Barron rates ahead, -0.7 to -2.5 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Eller is surging, +4:13 TOI a game; Barron is cooling, ixG/60 0.61 (was 0.84).
- • Eller, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 0 G, 5 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
- • Barron, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.
Florida Panthers · Winnipeg Jets · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Lars Eller
-2.5
category z-score total
Morgan Barron
-0.7
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Morgan Barron has the edge (Eller wins 3, Barron wins 3 of 6 categories).
| Category | Eller | Barron |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Assists / game | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.95 | 1.31 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 2.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Eller vs Barron
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2020-21 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Eller 3G 3A, 23 SOG · Barron 1G 2A, 17 SOG
Eller's offensive zone 2–0 · neutral 2–2 · Eller's defensive zone 2–1 (2020-21 to 2023-24)
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Eller | Barron |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-25 | WSH 2–3 WPG | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-20 | PIT 3–6 WPG | 2G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-02-10 | PIT 1–2 WPG | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-06 | PIT 3–0 WPG | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-04-13 | COL 4–2 WPG | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-12-23 | WSH 4–1 WPG | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-12-11 | WSH 5–2 WPG | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-02-24 | WSH 1–4 NYR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2021-05-05 | WSH 4–2 NYR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2021-05-03 | WSH 6–3 NYR | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
Faceoffs: Eller vs Barron
Model: Lars Eller wins 53.6% of draws against Morgan Barron on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Eller at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 60% | 47% | 61% | 48% | 54% | 61% | 48% | 62% | 49% |
| Road | 58% | 45% | 59% | 47% | 53% | 59% | 47% | 61% | 48% |
Head-to-head 2023-24: Eller 1–0 (100.0%). Blended with the model: 53.7%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.9); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Lars Eller
3games (2 left)
1.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 @ OTTOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ CHI0.9 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Morgan Barron
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ STLOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.910)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ DAL1.0 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to Cvs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sun, Oct 25 vs MTL1.2 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Lars Eller or Morgan Barron in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Barron projects to 1.19 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Lars Eller's 0.85. Eller had 15 points in 68 games; Barron had 23 in 65 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Lars Eller or Morgan Barron?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Morgan Barron leads in 18 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Eller and Barron done against each other?
- In 10 games against each other in our data, Eller's team went 6–4. Eller had 6 points (3 goals) and Barron had 3 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Eller or Barron?
- Against each other, Eller has won 6 and Barron 3 of their 9 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →