Draw Duel
Colton Dach faceoff stats, 2025-26
EDM · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
39.5%
90%: 34.4%–44.9% vs an average regular, on 114 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
36.6%
26 won of 71 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
37.8% / 35.7%
37 strong-side, 14 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.0 FOW
2026-10-07 vs ANA: 10 draws at 41.6%, range 1–7
Where Dach wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 26 | 10 | 38.5% |
| OZ right | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 29 | 14 | 48.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R31.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L32.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R32.4%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R32.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L33.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L33.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L52.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L52.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L51.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L49.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L49.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R48.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 54.8% 31 | 56.7% 30 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 71.4% 7 | 60.0% 15 | 33.3% 9 | 54.5% 11 | 36.4% 11 |
| 2025-26 | 36.6% 71 | 36.1% 61 | 44.4% 9 | 0.0% 1 | 34.5% 29 | 35.5% 31 | 45.5% 11 | 37.8% 37 | 35.7% 14 |
| 2024-25 | 50.0% 12 | 50.0% 12 | — 0 | — 0 | 50.0% 10 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 45.5% 11 | 100.0% 1 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rossi | 3–4 | 42.9% | 40.9% | 40.9% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Elias Pettersson | 3–4 | 42.9% | 41.3% | 41.4% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Max Sasson | 4–1 | 80.0% | 49.5% | 49.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 1–4 | 20.0% | 34.6% | 34.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Paul Cotter | 3–1 | 75.0% | 42.9% | 43.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Claude Giroux | 1–3 | 25.0% | 29.5% | 29.4% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mikael Backlund | 1–3 | 25.0% | 45.7% | 45.6% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Shane Wright | 1–2 | 33.3% | 48.7% | 48.6% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Sam Morton | 0–3 | 0.0% | 48.1% | 47.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Dylan Cozens | 1–2 | 33.3% | 39.2% | 39.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Stephen Halliday | 1–1 | 50.0% | 54.4% | 54.4% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0–2 | 0.0% | 32.4% | 32.3% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs SEA | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ VAN | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs VAN | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| 2026-01-22 | @ CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-04 | vs VGK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-30 | vs NYI | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PIT | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2025-12-23 | vs PHI | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-20 | @ OTT | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2025-12-13 | vs DET | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (35%), Mikael Granlund (42%)4.0 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (44%), Macklin Celebrini (42%)4.1 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Colton Dach's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Colton Dach's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Colton Dach win tonight?
When Colton Dach has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Colton Dach better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.