Who to start · 2025-26
Jake Guentzel vs Ryan O'Reilly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90.
Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games.
This week Guentzel has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; O'Reilly has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project O'Reilly for 2.0 ESPN points to Guentzel's 1.5.
Jake Guentzel has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Guentzel's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 61, Offensive-zone start % 63.0%, Ascension score 53.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Draw Equity /100 +0.056, Faceoff win % 55.1%, Faceoffs won 739.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake Guentzel
2.20
fantasy points per game
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.
| Points per game from | Guentzel | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.88 | 0.58 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Guentzel vs O'Reilly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Guentzel 3G 9A, 41 SOG · O'Reilly 1G 5A, 20 SOG
Guentzel's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 0–1 · Guentzel's defensive zone 1–0 (2019-20 to 2025-26)
Guentzel blocked 1 of O'Reilly's shots; O'Reilly blocked 0 of Guentzel's.
On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)
4:53 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–7
- 46.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.1
- 75.6%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Guentzel | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | TBL 3–2 NSH | 1G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-28 | TBL 5–2 NSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-11-29 | TBL 3–2 NSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-28 | TBL 3–2 NSH | 0G 2A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-28 | PIT 2–3 NSH | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-12-03 | PIT 6–2 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-17 | PIT 3–2 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-01-05 | PIT 5–3 STL | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2019-12-04 | PIT 3–0 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2019-11-30 | PIT 2–5 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2019-03-16 | PIT 1–5 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2018-12-29 | PIT 6–1 STL | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake Guentzel
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MINOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +13.0 win%Likely vs Casey DeSmith (.907)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake Guentzel or Ryan O'Reilly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90. Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake Guentzel or Ryan O'Reilly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Guentzel and O'Reilly done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 12–3. Guentzel had 12 points (3 goals) and O'Reilly had 6 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Guentzel or O'Reilly?
- Against each other, Guentzel has won 2 and O'Reilly 2 of their 4 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →