Who to start · 2025-26
Justin Danforth vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Justin Danforth's 0.51.
Danforth had 0 points in 4 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Danforth has 2 games left with 1 soft matchup; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Danforth's 2.1 over the games left.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -7.7 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Danforth has no recent trend; MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • Danforth has played 6 of the Sabres' 7 games since Oct 6 (in and out of the lineup).
- • 2026-27 so far: 6 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Buffalo Sabres · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Justin Danforth
-7.7
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Danforth wins 0, MacKinnon wins 6 of 6 categories).
| Category | Danforth | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.31 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.40 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Danforth vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Danforth 0G 0A, 1 SOG · MacKinnon 3G 2A, 16 SOG
Danforth's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 2–1 · Danforth's defensive zone 1–0 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Danforth's side)
5:32 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Danforth's side
- Shot attempts
- 1–10
- 9.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.3
- 20.8%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Danforth | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | BUF 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2025-04-03 | CBJ 3–7 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2024-04-01 | CBJ 4–1 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 9S |
Faceoffs: Danforth vs MacKinnon
Model: Justin Danforth wins 50.3% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (R shot vs R shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Danforth at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 43% | 57% | 44% | 58% | 51% | 44% | 58% | 45% | 59% |
| Road | 41% | 56% | 42% | 57% | 50% | 42% | 57% | 44% | 58% |
Head-to-head 2024-25 to 2025-26: Danforth 3–1 (75.0%). Blended with the model: 50.5%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 1.0); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Danforth faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Justin Danforth
2games
2.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI1.1 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH1.1 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Justin Danforth or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Justin Danforth's 0.51. Danforth had 0 points in 4 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- How have Danforth and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 3 games against each other in our data, Danforth's team went 1–2. Danforth had 0 points (0 goals) and MacKinnon had 5 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Danforth or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Danforth has won 3 and MacKinnon 1 of their 4 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →