Who to start · 2025-26
Mitch Marner vs Ryan O'Reilly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88.
Marner had 80 points in 81 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games.
This week Marner has 1 game left; O'Reilly has 1 left. We project Marner for 2.0 ESPN points to O'Reilly's 2.0.
Mitch Marner has the better number in 22 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Marner's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 66.6%, Fenwick 55.3%, Expected goals 57.0%.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Faceoff win % 55.1%, Draw Equity /100 +0.056, Luck Meter +52.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mitch Marner
1.88
fantasy points per game
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Ryan O'Reilly has the edge.
| Points per game from | Marner | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Marner vs O'Reilly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marner 4G 13A, 41 SOG · O'Reilly 10G 6A, 49 SOG
Marner's offensive zone 2–2 · neutral 0–1 · Marner's defensive zone 3–1 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Marner blocked 1 of O'Reilly's shots; O'Reilly blocked 2 of Marner's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Marner's side)
10:24 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Marner's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–10
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.5
- 38.8%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marner | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | VGK 1–4 NSH | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2026-01-17 | VGK 7–2 NSH | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-31 | VGK 2–4 NSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-22 | TOR 2–5 NSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-04 | TOR 3–2 NSH | 0G 3A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-12-09 | TOR 4–0 NSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-10-28 | TOR 2–3 NSH | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-27 | TOR 5–4 STL | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2022-01-15 | TOR 6–5 STL | 1G 1A 2S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2022-02-19 | TOR 3–6 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2019-12-07 | TOR 5–2 STL | 0G 2A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2019-10-07 | TOR 2–3 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 pts
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MIN
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mitch Marner or Ryan O'Reilly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mitch Marner's 1.88. Marner had 80 points in 81 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mitch Marner or Ryan O'Reilly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mitch Marner leads in 22 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Marner and O'Reilly done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Marner's team went 8–10. Marner had 17 points (4 goals) and O'Reilly had 16 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Marner or O'Reilly?
- Against each other, Marner has won 5 and O'Reilly 4 of their 9 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →