Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Ridly Greig
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ridly Greig's 1.24.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Greig had 35 in 77 games.
This week MacKinnon has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Greig has 3 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Greig's 3.5 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Offensive-zone start % 71.8%, Luck Meter +52.
Greig's biggest edges: Blocked shots 52, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.042, Penalty minutes 83.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Greig 14–12.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -0.2 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88); Greig is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 1.57 (was 2.99).
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 7 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Ridly Greig
-0.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (MacKinnon wins 5, Greig wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | MacKinnon | Greig |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.64 | 0.16 |
| Assists / game | 0.96 | 0.24 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.30 | 0.03 |
| Shots on goal / game | 4.38 | 1.60 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 1.12 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Greig
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 7G 10A, 30 SOG · Greig 4G 0A, 13 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 8–6 · neutral 4–5 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 2–1 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
8:08 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–10
- 47.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.4
- 41.1%
- Goals
- 2–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Greig |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | COL 2–5 OTT | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-08 | COL 8–2 OTT | 1G 3A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-20 | COL 5–1 OTT | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-27 | COL 5–4 OTT | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-01-16 | COL 7–4 OTT | 0G 2A 1S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2023-12-21 | COL 6–4 OTT | 4G 1A 9S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-16 | COL 5–4 OTT | 0G 3A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
Faceoffs: MacKinnon vs Greig
Model: Nathan MacKinnon wins 51.5% of draws against Ridly Greig on average (R shot vs L shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| MacKinnon at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 54% | 53% |
| Road | 50% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: MacKinnon 14–12 (53.8%). Blended with the model: 51.7%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.2); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Ridly Greig
3games
3.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA1.1 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to Cvs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR1.0 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Ridly Greig in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ridly Greig's 1.24. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Greig had 35 in 77 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Ridly Greig?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Greig done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 6–1. MacKinnon had 17 points (7 goals) and Greig had 4 (4 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Greig?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 14 and Greig 12 of their 26 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →