Edgehalla

Draw Duel

Nikolaj Ehlers faceoff stats, 2025-26

CAR · L · Left shot · full player page

Model rating

37.2%

90%: 31.6%–43.3% vs an average regular, on 72 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

35.5%

11 won of 31 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

39.3% / 0.0%

28 strong-side, 3 weak-side draws this season

Next game

No projection scheduled.

Where Ehlers wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

37% · 27— · 9— · 2— · 2— · 3— · 1— · 6
Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.
Show as a table
Nikolaj Ehlers faceoff win % by dot
DotDrawsWonFO%
OZ left271037.0%
OZ right9111.1%
NZ left (att.)2150.0%
NZ right (att.)2150.0%
Centre3133.3%
NZ left (def.)100.0%
NZ right (def.)00—
DZ left6233.3%
DZ right00—

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Easiest

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
SeasonAllEVPPPKOZNZDZStrongWeak
2025-2635.5% 3126.3% 1950.0% 12— 034.8% 2325.0% 450.0% 439.3% 280.0% 3
2024-2526.3% 1926.3% 19— 0— 023.1% 1350.0% 40.0% 225.0% 825.0% 8
2023-2426.7% 1533.3% 120.0% 3— 026.7% 15— 0— 025.0% 1233.3% 3
Playoffs (all)57.1% 760.0% 550.0% 2— 050.0% 250.0% 4100.0% 160.0% 5— 0

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
OpponentRecordRawModelBlendedUnusual?
Morgan Geekie2–250.0%41.2%41.2%normal luck (z 0.4)
Jack Eichel2–250.0%40.2%40.3%normal luck (z 0.4)
Brock Nelson2–166.7%39.1%39.2%normal luck (z 1.0)
Jake Evans0–20.0%32.1%32.0%normal luck (z -1.0)
Drew O'Connor1–150.0%32.6%32.6%normal luck (z 0.5)
Ryan McLeod0–20.0%43.3%43.2%a bit unusual (z -1.2)
Dawson Mercer0–20.0%46.0%45.8%a bit unusual (z -1.3)
Sean Couturier0–20.0%31.7%31.6%normal luck (z -1.0)
J.T. Compher0–20.0%38.7%38.5%a bit unusual (z -1.1)
Charlie Coyle1–150.0%38.0%38.1%normal luck (z 0.3)
Ryan Hartman0–20.0%42.5%42.3%a bit unusual (z -1.2)
Michael McCarron1–150.0%34.1%34.2%normal luck (z 0.5)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
DateOppFOWDrawsFO%
2026-06-09@ VGK22100.0%
2026-06-06@ VGK11100.0%
2026-05-27@ MTL010.0%
2026-05-21vs MTL020.0%
2026-04-18vs OTT11100.0%
2026-04-14@ NYI010.0%
2026-01-03vs COL020.0%
2026-01-01vs MTL1250.0%
2025-12-27vs DET020.0%
2025-12-19@ FLA010.0%

Projected faceoffs won

No upcoming games projected.

FAQ

What is Nikolaj Ehlers's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Nikolaj Ehlers's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Nikolaj Ehlers win tonight?

When Nikolaj Ehlers has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Nikolaj Ehlers better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.