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Who to start · 2025-26

Colton Sissons vs Nathan MacKinnon

Colton SissonsMaple Leafs · Centre
vs
Nathan MacKinnonAvalanche · Centre
Steady4 P in last 5 (0.15/GP before)
CoolingOn-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88)

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Colton Sissons's 1.04.

Sissons had 11 points in 66 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.

This week Sissons has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Sissons's 1.9 over the games left.

Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

Sissons's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.020, Faceoff win % 56.5%, Draw Equity /100 +0.074.

MacKinnon's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1054, Luck Meter +52, Assists 74.

Head to head on the dot, Sissons leads MacKinnon 55–42.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -2.1 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: Sissons is steady, 4 P in last 5 (0.15/GP before); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).

  • • Sissons, 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 13 SOG.
  • • Sissons, last 10 games (Sep 30–Oct 20): 2 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 13 SOG.
  • • MacKinnon, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.

Toronto Maple Leafs · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Colton Sissons

-2.1

category z-score total

Nathan MacKinnon

+14.0

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Sissons wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategorySissonsMacKinnon
Goals / game0.130.64
Assists / game0.160.96
Plus/minus / game-0.060.43
Power-play points / game0.020.30
Shots on goal / game1.154.38
Hits / game1.810.68

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: Sissons vs MacKinnon

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

SissonsMacKinnon
23Team record in 39 meetings16
29Points in those games53

Sissons 13G 16A, 56 SOG · MacKinnon 28G 25A, 213 SOG

55Faceoffs against each other42

Sissons's offensive zone 10–7 · neutral 22–14 · Sissons's defensive zone 23–21 (2017-18 to 2026-27)

2Hits on each other0
2Shots blocked by the other0

Sissons blocked 2 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Sissons's.

0Penalties drawn off the other1

On the ice against each other (Sissons's side)

18:44 at 5-on-5 over 5 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Sissons's side

Shot attempts
7–36
16.3%
Expected goals
0.4–1.7
17.6%
Goals
1–1

Games against each other

Games between Colton Sissons and Nathan MacKinnon
DateScoreSissonsMacKinnon
2026-10-10TOR 6–3 COL0G 0A 0S2G 0A 8S
2026-05-26 · POVGK 2–1 COL0G 0A 1S0G 0A 2S
2026-05-24 · POVGK 5–3 COL0G 0A 1S0G 1A 5S
2026-05-22 · POVGK 3–1 COL0G 0A 1S0G 0A 1S
2026-05-20 · POVGK 4–2 COL0G 1A 1S0G 1A 3S
2026-04-11VGK 3–2 COL0G 0A 0S0G 0A 6S
2025-12-27VGK 5–6 COL1G 0A 2S1G 2A 9S
2025-02-22NSH 2–1 COL0G 1A 2S0G 0A 8S
2024-12-14NSH 2–5 COL0G 0A 2S2G 1A 3S
2024-11-11NSH 2–3 COL1G 0A 1S0G 1A 5S
2024-11-02NSH 5–2 COL1G 0A 2S1G 1A 6S
2024-03-30NSH 4–7 COL0G 0A 2S2G 2A 5S

Latest 12 of 39 meetings.

Faceoffs: Sissons vs MacKinnon

Model: Colton Sissons wins 55.1% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (R shot vs R shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.

Colton Sissons's predicted win % against Nathan MacKinnon at each dot, in Sissons's attacking direction, at home and on the road.
Sissons atOZ leftOZ rightNZ left (att.)NZ right (att.)CentreNZ left (def.)NZ right (def.)DZ leftDZ right
Home47%62%48%63%55%48%63%50%64%
Road46%61%47%62%55%47%62%48%63%

Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2026-27: Sissons 11–12 (47.8%). Blended with the model: 54.8%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.7); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.

Sissons faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

SissonsMacKinnon

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below

Every stat, side by side (continued)

SissonsMacKinnon

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Toronto Maple Leafs logo

Colton Sissons

4games (2 left)

1.9proj. ESPN default pts

  • Mon, Oct 19 vs SJS
    Opp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Yaroslav Askarov (.884)
  • Tue, Oct 20 @ CBJB2B
    Opp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
  • Thu, Oct 22 vs NYR1.0 pts
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to Cvs Dylan Garand (.948)
  • Sat, Oct 24 @ EDM1.0 pts
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +1.8 win%Likely vs Tristan Jarry (.882)
Colorado Avalanche logo

Nathan MacKinnon

4games (2 left)

5.9proj. ESPN default pts

  • Mon, Oct 19 @ PHI
    Opp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
  • Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
    Opp allows 16th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
  • Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 pts
    Opp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Juuse Saros (.893)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Colton Sissons or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Colton Sissons's 1.04. Sissons had 11 points in 66 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Colton Sissons or Nathan MacKinnon?
On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Sissons and MacKinnon done against each other?
In 39 games against each other in our data, Sissons's team went 23–16. Sissons had 29 points (13 goals) and MacKinnon had 53 (28 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Sissons or MacKinnon?
Against each other, Sissons has won 55 and MacKinnon 42 of their 97 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →