Who to start · 2025-26
Alexander Kerfoot vs Mikael Backlund
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alexander Kerfoot projects to 1.17 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13.
Kerfoot had 13 points in 34 games; Backlund had 43 in 82 games.
This week Kerfoot has 3 games left with 1 tough matchup; Backlund has 2 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project Kerfoot for 3.3 to Backlund's 2.0 over the games left.
Mikael Backlund has the better number in 20 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Kerfoot's biggest edges: Scoring chances 53.2%, Offensive-zone time 41.7%, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.018.
Backlund's biggest edges: Hardest shot 93.5, Shots on goal 186, Transition attempts /60 1.84.
Head to head on the dot, Backlund leads Kerfoot 27–15.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Mikael Backlund rates ahead, -0.9 to -3.0 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Kerfoot is rising, +2:19 TOI a game; Backlund is steady, ixG/60 1.23 (was 0.58).
- • Kerfoot, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 1 PPP, 7 SOG.
- • Backlund, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 24 SOG.
Nashville Predators · Calgary Flames · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Alexander Kerfoot
-3.0
category z-score total
Mikael Backlund
-0.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Mikael Backlund has the edge (Kerfoot wins 2, Backlund wins 4 of 6 categories).
| Category | Kerfoot | Backlund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Assists / game | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.13 | -0.07 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.84 | 2.52 |
| Hits / game | 0.79 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Kerfoot vs Backlund
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Kerfoot 4G 7A, 43 SOG · Backlund 10G 17A, 83 SOG
Kerfoot's offensive zone 6–9 · neutral 7–16 · Kerfoot's defensive zone 2–2 (2017-18 to 2024-25)
Kerfoot blocked 0 of Backlund's shots; Backlund blocked 1 of Kerfoot's.
On the ice against each other (Kerfoot's side)
1:47 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Kerfoot's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–0
- 100.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.0
- 100.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Kerfoot | Backlund |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | UTA 1–4 CGY | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-01 | UTA 3–1 CGY | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-02 | UTA 5–3 CGY | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-30 | UTA 5–1 CGY | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-14 | ARI 5–6 CGY | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-01-16 | ARI 2–3 CGY | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-01-11 | ARI 2–6 CGY | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-02 | TOR 2–1 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2022-12-10 | TOR 5–4 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-02-10 | TOR 2–5 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2021-11-12 | TOR 2–1 CGY | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-04-13 | TOR 2–3 CGY | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 33 meetings.
Faceoffs: Kerfoot vs Backlund
Model: Alexander Kerfoot wins 47.5% of draws against Mikael Backlund on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Kerfoot at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 55% | 39% | 57% | 40% | 48% | 57% | 40% | 58% | 41% |
| Road | 54% | 37% | 55% | 38% | 47% | 55% | 38% | 56% | 40% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2024-25: Kerfoot 6–15 (28.6%). Blended with the model: 46.8%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.7); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Alexander Kerfoot
3games
3.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 @ BOS1.0 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ PIT1.2 ptsOpp allows 13th-most FP to CLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
Mikael Backlund
2games
2.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 vs MIN1.0 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs DET1.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Alexander Kerfoot or Mikael Backlund in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alexander Kerfoot projects to 1.17 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13. Kerfoot had 13 points in 34 games; Backlund had 43 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Alexander Kerfoot or Mikael Backlund?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mikael Backlund leads in 20 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Kerfoot and Backlund done against each other?
- In 33 games against each other in our data, Kerfoot's team went 17–16. Kerfoot had 11 points (4 goals) and Backlund had 27 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Kerfoot or Backlund?
- Against each other, Kerfoot has won 15 and Backlund 27 of their 42 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →