Who to start · 2025-26
Frederick Gaudreau vs Mikael Backlund
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Frederick Gaudreau projects to 1.39 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13.
Gaudreau had 24 points in 68 games; Backlund had 43 in 82 games.
This week Gaudreau has 2 games left; Backlund has 2 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project Gaudreau for 2.4 to Backlund's 2.0 over the games left.
Mikael Backlund has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Gaudreau's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.023, Blocked shots 52, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.22.
Backlund's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.84, Hardest shot 93.5, Corsi 50.2%.
Head to head on the dot, Backlund leads Gaudreau 36–21.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Mikael Backlund rates ahead, -0.9 to -1.3 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Gaudreau is steady, 4 P in last 5 (0.40/GP before); Backlund is steady, ixG/60 1.23 (was 0.58).
- • Gaudreau, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 5 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • Backlund, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 24 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Frederick Gaudreau
-1.3
category z-score total
Mikael Backlund
-0.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Mikael Backlund has the edge (Gaudreau wins 3, Backlund wins 3 of 6 categories).
| Category | Gaudreau | Backlund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| Assists / game | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.11 | -0.07 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.10 | 2.52 |
| Hits / game | 0.47 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Gaudreau vs Backlund
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Gaudreau 6G 4A, 29 SOG · Backlund 5G 5A, 61 SOG
Gaudreau's offensive zone 9–14 · neutral 4–9 · Gaudreau's defensive zone 8–13 (2017-18 to 2026-27)
Gaudreau blocked 2 of Backlund's shots; Backlund blocked 0 of Gaudreau's.
On the ice against each other (Gaudreau's side)
13:02 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Gaudreau's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–18
- 35.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.7
- 38.3%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Gaudreau | Backlund |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | SEA 6–1 CGY | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2026-10-01 | SEA 6–1 CGY | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-04-11 | SEA 4–1 CGY | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2026-01-05 | SEA 5–1 CGY | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA 2–4 CGY | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2025-04-11 | MIN 2–4 CGY | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2025-01-25 | MIN 4–5 CGY | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-23 | MIN 3–4 CGY | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-02 | MIN 1–3 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-12-14 | MIN 3–2 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-12-05 | MIN 5–2 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-03-07 | MIN 0–1 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 19 meetings.
Faceoffs: Gaudreau vs Backlund
Model: Frederick Gaudreau wins 46.3% of draws against Mikael Backlund on average (R shot vs L shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Gaudreau at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 47% | 44% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 47% |
| Road | 46% | 43% | 47% | 44% | 46% | 47% | 44% | 48% | 45% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2026-27: Gaudreau 7–18 (28.0%). Blended with the model: 45.4%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.8); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Frederick Gaudreau
3games (2 left)
2.4proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs DETOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Daniil Tarasov (.895)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs UTA1.2 ptsOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs MIN1.2 ptsOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
Mikael Backlund
2games
2.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 vs MIN1.0 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs DET1.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Frederick Gaudreau or Mikael Backlund in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Frederick Gaudreau projects to 1.39 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13. Gaudreau had 24 points in 68 games; Backlund had 43 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Frederick Gaudreau or Mikael Backlund?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mikael Backlund leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Gaudreau and Backlund done against each other?
- In 19 games against each other in our data, Gaudreau's team went 8–11. Gaudreau had 10 points (6 goals) and Backlund had 10 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Gaudreau or Backlund?
- Against each other, Gaudreau has won 21 and Backlund 36 of their 57 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →