Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Tage Thompson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tage Thompson's 2.26.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games.
This week MacKinnon has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Thompson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Thompson for 2.6 ESPN points to MacKinnon's 2.2.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Plus/minus +57, Scoring chances 59.3%.
Thompson's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.008, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.35, Blocked shots 48.
Head to head on the dot, Thompson leads MacKinnon 19–18.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Tage Thompson
2.26
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | MacKinnon | Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.49 | 0.93 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.87 | 0.47 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Thompson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 11G 11A, 55 SOG · Thompson 8G 7A, 36 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 3–2 · neutral 9–9 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 6–8 (2021-22 to 2025-26)
MacKinnon blocked 0 of Thompson's shots; Thompson blocked 1 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
7:51 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–12
- 33.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.4
- 33.1%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Thompson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | COL 6–3 BUF | 0G 1A 8S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2025-10-13 | COL 3–1 BUF | 2G 0A 5S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-02 | COL 6–5 BUF | 0G 3A 3S | 0G 3A 4S |
| 2024-12-03 | COL 5–4 BUF | 2G 1A 9S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2023-12-13 | COL 5–1 BUF | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-10-29 | COL 0–4 BUF | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-12-01 | COL 6–4 BUF | 2G 3A 8S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2022-02-19 | COL 5–3 BUF | 1G 0A 5S | 3G 0A 3S |
| 2018-10-11 | COL 6–1 BUF | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2018-03-15 | COL 4–1 STL | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2018-01-25 | COL 1–3 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Tage Thompson
2games (1 left)
2.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.6 ptsOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Tage Thompson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tage Thompson's 2.26. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Tage Thompson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Thompson done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 9–2. MacKinnon had 22 points (11 goals) and Thompson had 15 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Thompson?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 18 and Thompson 19 of their 37 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →